MLB Prop Picks — Sunday, April 5, 2026
AI-powered picks from Statcast exit velocity, umpire CSAA data, park factors & lineup analysis
17
Total Picks
11
HR Props
6
K Props
1
Prime Targets
🎯 HR Prop Targets
💎 Diamond
Jarren Duran
Boston Red Sox
Bat 3
Story has raw power potential and faces a vulnerable Buehler with sub-average velo in a park that rewards right-center power.
💎 Diamond
Samuel Basallo
BAL
Bat 5
Wind 16 mph OUT at PIT strongest clean wind on daytime slate. Barrel 21%. AvgEV 94.2. HH 57.4%. Ashcraft 1/3 weak but wind + contact overcome.
💎 Diamond
Junior Caminero
TB
Bat 4
Woods Richardson fires all 3 vulnerability signals. Wind 11 mph out. Pull Air 28%. AvgEV 92.4. Barrel 14%. MaxEV 116.7. Batting cleanup.
💎 Diamond
Colson Montgomery
CWS
Bat 4
Two straight days hitting. Pull Air 38.9% elite. Barrel 14.5%. Wind 15 mph out at Guaranteed Rate. System keeps flagging, keeps delivering.
💎 Diamond
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
Bat 2
xSLG .961 best in baseball. McCullers 3/3. AvgEV 94.7. Barrel 13.8%. Pull Air 39.1% elite. O/U 10.0.
💎 Diamond
Pete Alonso
BAL
Bat 3
5th consecutive day qualifying. AvgEV 93.5. Barrel 18.9% elite. MaxEV 115.9. Wind 16 mph out. Ashcraft 1/3 only weak signal. Same game as Basallo.
💎 Diamond
Andrew Benintendi
CWS
Bat 3
Pull Air 70.0% HIGHEST on entire slate. EV spike +3.4 mph. Barrel 11%. Wind 15 mph out. Same game as Montgomery. TOR vs CWS multi-HR environment.
💎 Diamond
Francisco Alvarez
NYM
Bat 9
xSLG .914 elite. EV spike +4.0 mph. Pull Air 39.1%. Barrel 12.1%. Webb 1/3 weak. O/U 7.0 + PF95 suppress. Batting 9th limits ABs.
💎 Diamond
Corbin Carroll
ARI
Bat 3
Chase Field dome removes variance. Perez Martin 2/3 vulnerable. AvgEV 92.1. Barrel 14.5%. xSLG .577. Pull Air 23.8%.
💎 Diamond
Vladimir Guerrero Jr
TOR
Bat 3
3 straight days passing gate and hitting. AvgEV 92.0. MaxEV 120.4. Barrel 12.2%. Wind 15 mph out at Guaranteed Rate. Martin 1/3 weak but contact + wind carry.
🎯 Prime Target
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Bat 2
Coors PF115 + Sugano 3/3 elite combo. Different pitcher than yesterday, more vulnerable. xSLG .539. AvgEV 94.3. Barrel 20.8% elite. HH 59.6%. Pull Air 25%.
⚾ K Prop Targets
⚾ K Prop
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox
55 score
Projected: 4.1–8.2 Ks · Line: ?
⚾ K Prop
Kris Bubic
Kansas City Royals
42 score
Projected: 2.6–5.3 Ks · Line: ?
⚾ K Prop
Max Fried
New York Yankees
42 score
Projected: 4.9–9.9 Ks · Line: ?
⚾ K Prop
Logan Webb
San Francisco Giants
35 score
Projected: 4.4–8.7 Ks · Line: ?
⚾ K Prop
Jack Leiter
Texas Rangers
35 score
Projected: 4.1–8.2 Ks · Line: ?
⚾ K Prop
Luis Castillo
Seattle Mariners
35 score
Projected: 4.1–8.1 Ks · Line: ?
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